Space in the city

Trader Joe's Business Secret Recipe

2010-08-24T10:05:00.000-07:00

Great article on Trader Joe's Business philosophy and history. (Saw it on Yahoo)

Some take aways from the article:

>> Strike a balance between choice and customer experience

"Swapping selection for value turns out not to be much of a tradeoff. Customers may think they want variety, but in reality too many options can lead to shopping paralysis. "People are worried they'll regret the choice they made," says Barry Schwartz, a Swarthmore professor and author of The Paradox of Choice. "People don't want to feel they made a mistake." Studies have found that buyers enjoy purchases more if they know the pool of options isn't quite so large. Trader Joe's organic creamy unsalted peanut butter will be more satisfying if there are only nine other peanut butters a shopper might have purchased instead of 39. Having a wide selection may help get customers in the store, but it won't increase the chances they'll buy. Read More Learn More about Choice - Go to blog post "Insight into choice"

>> Value pricing of product matters even if its the hottest trend

The success at Trader Joe's validates the behavior economics idea about "The Compromise Effect" - Customers rejecting the idea of shopping at higher priced Whole foods (and other gourmet retailers) or the lower priced Walmart products but end up finding value at Trader Joe. Read More

>> Employee help in customer experience - take care of your employee

"An employee, noticing that he has his arms full, brings him a basket. At the register the perky cashier offers up that the mango sorbet Flickinger has selected is on her top 10 list of favorite Trader Joe's items.Read More

>> Manage and be deliberately careful in growth plan

Grow only after you worked out your supply chain issues and more importantly grow only after you can keep delivering the same customer experience that made you what you are. Read More

CNBC's 10 Best Business Books 2010 Summer

2010-08-20T06:36:00.000-07:00

Watch The slide Show on CNBC - The 10 Best Business Books

To read more detail review on business books visit Gloria McDonough-Taub CNBC.com blog, "Bullish On Books"

Google at 6 - What do analysts have to say about that

2010-08-20T05:33:00.000-07:00

Here in an article in Yahoo Finance via cnbc

Remember that old saying from the 1920s retailer, John Wanamaker? He knew half his ad budget was wasted, now if only he knew which half. Google promised to change all that.

Instead of focusing ever harder on its core-providing smarter search results and better-tailored ads for what you're looking for, thereby boosting the only real revenue stream the company has-Google has wanderlust.

Goes on to compare it to Sun Microsystem Read More

Fools.com evaluate Google Moat and found the following

For a company in a constantly evolving industry, Google has a surprisingly sustainable series of competitive advantages over its peers. Read more about the Moats fools.com analyzed (namely Intellectual property rights. Customer switching costs, The network effect, Cost advantages)

Mark Hulbert: An exclusive Google birthday party Hulbert Financial Files - MarketWatch

Mark Hulbert warns it's a mistake to assume other tech IPOs will see the same level of success.

Charlie Rose - On the growth of Google with Chris Anderson of 'Wired,' Michael Copeland, senior writer for Fortune and Jessica Vascellaro of 'The Wall Street Journal'

Interesting Books - Zoo Story

2010-08-19T08:53:00.000-07:00

Yesterday Thomas French was interviewed on CN about his new book "Zoo Story: Life and Death in the Garden of Captives" (Kindle)

Locate a local Independent Store - at IndieBound

Reviews:

"Inside the zoo, time was not human. Time moved outside human expectations. It did not settle into a single groove," French writes. "Zoo time was fluid, changeable, unpredictable. It unfolded in different rhythms, at variable speeds, calibrated to the heartbeat and breathing patterns and behavior of each species." Read full Review on USA Today

Listen/Read NPR Interview - The 'Zoo Story,' Both Beguiling And Repellent

The Colbert Report

Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c

Thomas French

www.colbertnation.com

Colbert Report Full Episodes

2010 Election

Fox News

Updated 2: Warren Buffett - PFE - No?

2010-08-16T13:40:00.000-07:00

Did Warren Buffett increase/buy Stake in PFE (Pifzer)? Bloomberg TV reports Yes - Watch Bloomberg to find out more
Warren Buffett's Stock Buys - This website provides an interactive list of Warren Buffett's current stock portfolio holdings
This Google Spreadsheet Tracks Warren Buffett's Portfolio

Read this 1999 Article in Businessweek about Warren Buffett's Investment

How to make Viral Content - Jonah Peretti

2010-08-15T05:45:00.000-07:00

Jonah Peretti Viral Meetup Talk

Saw it at MediaMemo blog by Peter Kafka

WSJ - Explains third party cookies

2010-07-30T18:31:00.000-07:00

Color e-ink - Old Story Reconfirmed

2010-07-30T09:02:00.000-07:00

Investing in Chinese Company

2010-07-29T14:28:00.000-07:00

Look out for (Key Words) - Reverse Merger, Auditors, Unproven Business, Require More Research.

Watch this Marketwatch video "Hype and Hope for Small-Cap Chinese Stocks"

Global Hunter Securities hosted China Conference (July 11 – 13, 2010) at the St. Regis Hotel in San Francisco that featured approximately 100 China-based companies, most of which have shares that trade on U.S. exchanges. More information at pwcast video blog

Company's in Wireless Broadband Network - Building Next Generation Networks

2010-07-29T09:49:00.000-07:00

Clearwire, through its operating subsidiaries, is a leading provider of wireless broadband services. Clearwire's 4G network is currently available in areas of the U.S. where approximately 51 million people live and the company plans to continue to expand its 4G coverage. Clearwire's open all-IP network, combined with significant spectrum holdings, provides an unprecedented combination of speed and mobility to deliver next generation broadband access. The company markets its 4G service through its own brand called CLEAR® as well as through its wholesale relationships with Sprint, Comcast and Time Warner Cable. Strategic investors include Intel Capital, Comcast, Sprint, Google, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House Networks.

LightSquared is building a state-of-the-art open wireless broadband network. This open network will unleash the full power of the mobile Internet, driving innovation in devices, applications, and services. LightSquared will offer network capacity on a wholesale-only basis to a variety of business partners.

Video Introduction from Sanjiv Ahuja from LightSquared

So what will a 5g Network look like -

5G (Fifth Generation) mobile network concept, which is seen as user-centric concept instead of operator-centric as in 3G or service-centric concept as seen for 4G. In the proposed concept the mobile user is on the top of all. The 5G terminals will have software defined radios and modulation scheme as well as new error-control schemes can be downloaded from the Internet on the run. The development is seen towards the user terminals as a focus of the 5G mobile networks. The terminals will have access to different wireless technologies at the same time and the terminal should be able to combine different flows from different technologies. Each network will be responsible for handling user-mobility, while the terminal will make the final choice among different wireless/mobile access network providers for a given service. The paper also proposes intelligent Internet phone concept where the mobile phone can choose the best connections by selected constraints and dynamically change them during a single end-to-end connection. The proposal in this paper is fundamental shift in the mobile networking philosophy compared to existing 3G and near-soon 4G mobile technologies, and this concept is called here - the 5G. (Read More)

Insurance Fraud - at Prudential Financial and MetLife

2010-07-29T08:44:00.000-07:00

Bloomberg Reports

Survivors are told the death benefit is being placed in a secure interest-bearing account, and they are given what the company calls a “checkbook” to spend the money when they want.

In fact, insurers place the so-called retained-asset accounts in their own general corporate accounts and keep most of the investment earnings. The money isn’t guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and the “checks” are IOUs for money in the insurer’s account.

BusinessWeek - Veterans agency to probe insurers on soldier benefits
More Details at NPR: Life Insurance Firms Profit From Death Benefits
Media Center of The New York State Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo

Text to Speech Software - Some Free

2010-07-28T10:55:00.000-07:00

NaturalReader is a Text to Speech software with natural sounding voices. This easy to use software can convert any written text such as MS Word, Webpage, PDF files, and Emails into spoken words. NaturalReader can also convert any written text into audio files such as MP3 or WAV for your CD player or iPod.

Read more in 2007 article

AT&T Natural Voices is an award winning text to speech technology developed by AT&T Laboratories and distributed by Wizzard Software. Natural Voices is believed by many to be the most natural sounding TTS available, the "highly scalable" multi-threaded technology can automate and add tremendous interactive and humanistic value to a wide variety of applications and projects.

- Version 4.2 AT&T Natural Voices Server Text to Speech (TTS) for Windows or Linux

- Implemented with a developers software developer kit (SDK) and distributable runtime software

- Dynamically converts text into voice for a wide variety of applications

- Applauded by many as the most realistic human-sounding synthetic voices

- Implemented with a flexible "engine + voice font" architecture

- Supports customization of pronunciations, acronyms, abbreviations, speaking rate

- Scalable for high volume multi-thread IVR type implementations

- Distributable runtime software is available for (20) voices in (8) languages including US English, UK English, Indian English, French, Canadian French, German, Italian, and Spanish

Download Opera Web Browser and you can have a block of text read to you by Opera, select the text and use the command "Opera speak". Alternatively, say "Opera read" to hear the next block of text after your currently highlighted position. If no text is highlighted, Opera will go to the first block of text on the page. Try the "speak" command on the following paragraph:

It was not long before someone knocked at the house-door and called: ‘Open the door, dear children; your mother is here, and has brought something back with her for each of you.’ But the little kids knew that it was the wolf, by the rough voice. ‘We will not open the door,’ cried they, ‘you are not our mother. She has a soft, pleasant voice, but your voice is rough; you are the wolf!’

Insight into choice

2010-07-27T21:45:00.000-07:00

Product developer and marketer can gain much needed insight into customer behavior by diving into the question as to how people make choices and how choices influence their happiness. Watch the following videos on the current thinking on choices.

Video #1 - Malcolm Gladwell makes a larger argument about the nature of choice and happiness – Embracing the diversity of human being you will find a sure way to happiness. Move away from search for universals and search for variability.

Video #2 - Sheena Iyengar studies how we make choices -- and how we feel about the choices we make. Her groundbreaking research that has uncovered some surprising attitudes about our decisions.

Video #3 - Paradox of Choice - freedom of choice. In Schwartz's estimation, choice has made us not freer but more paralyzed, not happier but more dissatisfied.

Video #4 - Dan Gilbert, author of Stumbling on Happiness, challenges the idea that we’ll be miserable if we don’t get what we want. Our "psychological immune system" lets us feel truly happy even when things don’t go as planned.

(June 2009) - PMI rises to 44.8 pct but New orders contracted to 49.2 pct from May high of 51.1 pct

2009-07-01T07:10:00.000-07:00

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

"Customer inventory burn is complete and real demand has reappeared." (Machinery)
"... a lot of people are requoting old business and using favorable pricing to negotiate with their current suppliers." (Computer & Electronic Products)
"Banks are reluctant to lend to businesses, and until this changes the economy will continue to be weak." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"Slow June, but firm large orders in July, August and September." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
"Market appears to have bottomed out as aftermarket has picked up slightly over the past month." (Transportation Equipment)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE JUNE 2009
Index	Series Index June	Series Index May	Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend* (Months)
PMI	44.8	42.8	+2.0	Contracting	Slower	17
New Orders	49.2	51.1	-1.9	Contracting	From Growing	1
Production	52.5	46.0	+6.5	Growing	From Contracting	1
Employment	40.7	34.3	+6.4	Contracting	Slower	11
Supplier Deliveries	50.6	49.8	+0.8	Slower	From Faster	1
Inventories	30.8	32.9	-2.1	Contracting	Faster	38
Customers' Inventories	43.5	46.0	-2.5	Too Low	Faster	3
Prices	50.0	43.5	+6.5	Unchanged	From Decreasing	1
Backlog of Orders	47.5	48.0	-0.5	Contracting	Faster	14
Exports	49.5	48.0	+1.5	Contracting	Slower	9
Imports	46.0	42.5	+3.5	Contracting	Slower	17

OVERALL ECONOMY				Growing	Faster	2
Manufacturing Sector				Contracting	Slower	17

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector PMI - 44.8% Jun3 2009

2009-07-01T07:04:00.001-07:00

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted
(any number below 50 percent indicates contraction ).
The consensus range for this index was from 41 to 47.5.
ISM's manufacturing index for the month of June 2009 was 44.8%, may 2009 PMI was 42.8%.

US Stock Indexes Futures up on first day of Q3

2009-07-01T05:11:00.001-07:00

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher opening Wednesday as investors await data on the manufacturing and housing industries.

Futures are reflecting gains in European markets, which rose after upbeat reports on manufacturing activity in both Britain and the 16 countries that share the euro currency.

Later Wednesday morning, investors will get a reading on manufacturing activity in the U.S. Economists expect activity to have declined in June for the 17th straight month, but at the slowest pace since last August.

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May

2009-06-23T07:09:00.001-07:00

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May's increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66 million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.

Dollar stays up as ongoing jobless claims improve - MarketWatch

2009-06-18T06:12:00.001-07:00

Dollar stays up as ongoing jobless claims improve - MarketWatch

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Initial Unemployment claim up 0.49; better than estimate

2009-06-18T05:40:00.000-07:00

Initial Claims of unemployment up by 0.49% better than average analyst estimate of 610K (bloomberg est).

In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 608,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 605,000. The 4-week moving average was 615,750, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 622,750.

Week 06/13 Jobless Claim Concensus

2009-06-17T06:44:00.000-07:00

As per bloomberg the Jobless claims to rise to 610K (concensus est). Read more...

Whats up with housing data release in June

2009-06-17T06:36:00.000-07:00

Mortgage Housing series update

Though housing construction make up 3% of US economy, but acts as a economic bellwether. So what does housing start jump in May 2009 reflect. To understand more about it read the article "Are housing starts a sign of the bottom? "

Bloomberg report that U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index Fell 16 Percent Last Week - Mortgage applications in the U.S. fell last week to the lowest level since November as the jump in borrowing costs over the last month caused refinancing to plunge further. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan dropped 16 percent to 514.4 in the week ended June 12, from 611 the prior week. The group’s refinancing gauge declined 23 percent, while the purchase index fell 3.5 percent.

Futures & CPI

Marketwatch reports U.S. stock futures were trading in a tight range Wednesday, with FedEx's gloomy outlook keeping markets under pressure after two sessions of heavy losses. U.S. consumer prices increased a below-forecast 0.1% in May as higher gasoline prices were largely offset by falling food prices, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.It was the first increase in the consumer price index in three months. The core CPI - which excludes often-volatile food and energy prices -- also rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in May. The CPI has fallen 1.3% in the past year, the sharpest decline in prices since April 1950. (Bestbuy bellwether for the retial stock as per marketplace article)

U.S. May housing starts jump 17.2% to 532,000 rate - MarketWatch

2009-06-16T05:33:00.001-07:00

U.S. May housing starts jump 17.2% to 532,000 rate - MarketWatch

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Golden Cross yet to be achived for S&P 500 - Bloomberg

2009-06-15T06:28:00.000-07:00

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may limp on its way toward a so-called golden cross as trading volume decreases, according to a technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

The major stock indexes “are back above their 200-day averages, and it’s increasingly tempting to conclude that a new bull market is underway,” Toronto-based Ray Hanson wrote in a report dated June 12. However, the S&P 500 “has not yet achieved a golden cross” and “the steadily declining volume since early May suggests caution,” he said.

Read More at Bloomberg

Futures Drop - Reason

2009-06-15T06:13:00.000-07:00

Bloomberg Reports:
Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in September decreased 1 percent to 931 at 8:44 a.m. New York time, after the benchmark index climbed 40 percent from a 12-year low March 9. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 1.1 percent to 8,643 and Nasdaq- 100 Index futures fell 0.8 percent to 1,473.5. Stocks also retreated in Europe and Asia.

“There is general concern that the three-month rally in equities means that stock prices have got ahead of reality,” said David Morrison, a London-based market strategist at GFT. “Oil and metals are sharply lower this morning and there is a growing realization that China is not yet ready to drag the global economy out of recession.”

Marketwatch Reports

In G8 meeting over the weekend - Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reportedly said Russia has confidence in the U.S. currency. Upbeat dollar comments deflated commodity prices, hitting markets across Europe and Asia. Crude-oil futures fell 70 cents a barrel and silver and platinum futures fell.

The Empire state index fell to negative 9.4 in June from negative 4.6 in May, indicating the downturn broadened to more firms. Readings under zero indicate more firms said business was worsening than said it was improving.

CNN Money Reports

U.S. stocks were set to fall sharply Monday as a stronger dollar took momentum out of the commodities rally.

Path To Growth

2009-06-15T05:31:00.001-07:00

Summary - Job Numbers Treasury to Decide New Weeks Market

2009-06-13T21:37:00.000-07:00

Summary
321,480 properties in May 2009 had foreclosure filing initiated (default notice or auctions).
As of May, one (1) in every 398 Mortgage got a foreclosure filing
Foreclosure filings dipped 6 percent in the month but increased 18 percent from May 2008, marking the third highest month on record.
one million foreclosure filings in a three-month period (March, April & May)
Temporary freezes on foreclosure activity ended in March.
RealtyTrac forecasts about 4 million foreclosure filings will be made this year on about 3.1 million households with loans. Last year, there was a record 3.1 million filings on about 2.4 million households.

Read complete report...

In another article titled "Mortgage Rates Head for 6 percent: 5 Reasons They Might Retreat", you can sense that the next week's job numbers is going to decide the trajectory of the market.

Data dive: The relative improvement of recent economic data--which has fueled optimism for a recovery--is also partly responsible for the rise in mortgage rates. "The data is not good yet, but it is at least less bad," says Richard Moody, the chief economist at Forward Capital. Over the fall and winter, 10-year treasury yields were depressed by the economic panic that boosted demand for ultrasafe government debt. But a growing sense of confidence has directed many investors to more risky assets like stocks instead of treasury bonds. As a result, treasury yields have increased, pushing mortgage rates higher. However, if future economic reports come in weaker than expected, investors could return to the safety of treasury bonds. "For example, next month's job numbers are probably going to be measurably worse than the last one," Zandi says, adding "and that will be a reminder" that the economy's troubles are not over yet.

And the other 4 reason
1. Government intervention:
3. Stock market tumble
4. Exit strategy:
5. Competition:
Read More ...

Review 2008 Foreclosure Filing stats...

Also heard

"The oil market will stabilise when the price of a barrel is at 90 dollars. This level should be reached between the middle and the end of 2010," Algeria's Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said in Algiers, according to the APS news agency.

In China - Industrial production, a key gauge of activity in factories and plants across China, grew 8.9 percent in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said -- compared to a 7.3 percent increase in April and 8.3 percent in March. Retail sales meanwhile grew 15.2 percent in May Read More...

Fortune has its list of 40 Stock

2009-06-12T14:23:00.000-07:00

Fortune.com has posted its list of 40 stock that you can retire with.

link to the list of stocks

Consumer sentiment rises to 69 in June - MarketWatch

2009-06-12T07:14:00.001-07:00

Consumer sentiment rises to 69 in June - MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment rose in June, but remained at relatively low levels, according to media reports of a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. The consumer sentiment index rose to 69 in mid-June from 68.7 in May. Economists were looking for a June result of 71. The index hit a 28-year low of 55.3 in November, and has averaged 88.2 over the last 10 years. Recent readings have been boosted by consumers' expectations that the end of the recession is approaching.

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U.S. stock futures signal slightly weaker start - MarketWatch

2009-06-12T05:36:00.001-07:00

U.S. stock futures signal slightly weaker start - MarketWatch

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Third-party business fuels Amazon's overall growth - MarketWatch

2009-06-11T12:37:00.001-07:00

Third-party business fuels Amazon's overall growth - MarketWatch

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WSJ -- Single-Digit P/E Ratios

2009-06-10T17:59:00.000-07:00

Low price/earnings ratios are usually easy to find, even when the broad market seems expensive. For example, the S&P 500-stock index has climbed more than 30% in three months and now trades at 22 times trailing earnings, well above stocks' 137-year average trailing P/E of 15. Still, one out of every eight index members has a P/E in single digits.

Not all low-P/E stocks are bargains, though. Modest valuations often mean earnings are expected to decline, and some declines suggest long-term decay. Others are simply temporary swings in consumer spending or raw materials prices. Shares of companies that trade cheaply because of expected, temporary earnings stumbles might be just the thing for investors worried that the broad market is priced for disappointment. For the humbly priced stocks to follow, a certain amount of anticipated disappointment is already priced in.

Chevron's earnings are expected to plunge this year but rebound sharply next year. My sympathies to the analysts who must come up with forecasts. Last summer, crude peaked at more than $145 a barrel. Just before Christmas, it fell below $35. Now it is over $70 again. Better, perhaps, to focus on the dividend yield, which stands at 3.7%, compared with about 2.3% for the broad market.

Carnival seems perfectly emblematic of the sort of pricey frolicking the middle class can do without during a recession. The stock is accordingly about half its price of two years ago. Profits are indeed expected to fall 27% in Carnival's fiscal year ending Nov. 30, but in its past two quarterly reports, the company topped estimates by double-digit percentages. One downside: Management scrapped the dividend late last year.

Archer Daniels Midland buys, stores, processes and ships crops. Over the long term, its usefulness to a hungry planet seems assured. In the short term, its profits can swing with the frenzy of a futures pit. Last quarter, the company missed earnings forecasts by 30%. The quarter before it beat estimates by 33%. The stock is nine times forecast earnings for its current fiscal year ending June 30, but 12 times next year's lower forecast. Still, the higher of the two numbers seems plenty reasonable compared with the broad stock market. Shares pay 2%. Below are listed these and two other stocks with single-digit P/Es.

—Jack Hough

Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year yields

2009-06-10T10:17:00.000-07:00

Bloomberg Reports that

"Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year yields to the highest level since November, as the government prepared to sell $19 billion in the securities and Russia said it may switch some of its reserves from U.S. debt.
Thirty-year bond yields reached the most in a year after a Russian central bank official said the nation may buy International Monetary Fund bonds. The Federal Reserve bought $3.5 billion in debt maturing in 2019 through 2026. Today’s auction is the second of three sales this week that will raise $65 billion, part of the U.S.’s record borrowing program."

Read More ...

U.S. and China optimism lifts stock futures - MarketWatch

2009-06-10T05:00:00.001-07:00

U.S. and China optimism lifts stock futures - MarketWatch

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Bloomberg: Report Profits Diluted 4% by U.S

2009-06-08T06:10:00.000-07:00

-- Read More at Bloomberg...

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- American common equity is increasing for the first time in five years, threatening to dilute corporate profits as companies sell a record amount of stock and cut dividends the most since 1938.

Wells Fargo & Co., ProLogis and more than 150 other companies raised $82.2 billion this quarter, beating the record pace at the height of the technology bubble in 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The combination of adding shares and restricting dividends will reduce annual equity returns as much as 4.1 percent, the data show.

Offerings since March 31 will increase outstanding shares in the S&P 500 by 3.4 percent on an annualized basis, adjusting for the market values of companies selling stock, data from Bloomberg and S&P show. The rise is based on S&P’s calculation of shares added or removed from the index through sales, buybacks and takeovers, known as the divisor.

The annualized increase in the S&P 500’s share count would cut estimated per-share profit this year by 3.3 percent to $57.23, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The 46 percent decline in S&P 500 corporate earnings since its peak in the second quarter of 2007 is forcing companies to conserve cash by shrinking dividends, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Combined payouts will fall 23 percent to $21.97 per share for companies in the benchmark index this year, the most since the 36 percent drop in 1938, S&P estimates.

Dividend Yield

Cutting the dividend yield by 0.8 percentage point from last year to 2.34 percent and the dilution from share sales would cut the S&P 500’s total return by 4.1 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While a reduction of that size represents less than a third of the average yearly increase in the index from 1982 through 2007, it’s a bigger drag in markets battered by the worst losses in 70 years, when the S&P 500 tumbled 38 percent last year. U.S. equities have returned 6 percent on average since 1900, inflation-adjusted data compiled by the London Business School and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG show.

Bank Losses

U.S. financial companies accounted for almost two-thirds of about $1.5 trillion in global asset writedowns and credit losses that drove shares of banks, brokers and insurers in the S&P 500 down as much as 84 percent since their 2007 peak.

Seventy-nine financial companies sold $60.7 billion of shares this quarter, reducing the claim existing shareholders have on earnings by more than 20 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Stock sales picked up as the S&P 500 rallied 39 percent from a 12-year low in March and surpassed the record $65.6 billion from the first quarter of 2000, just as the gauge started a 49 percent plunge. The 153 companies that have sold equity since March increased their outstanding shares by an average of 23 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The U.S. will shrink by the most since 1946 this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 61 economists. The jobless rate rose to 9.4 percent in May, a government report showed June 5. Corporate earnings are forecast to decline for two more quarters after dropping the last seven, the longest streak since the Great Depression, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

‘Rapid Return’

“What we find is that secondary-equity offerings frequently signal a view in management suites that prices are rich,” said Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates, which oversees $32 billion in Newport Beach, California. “Does that mean this is an interim top? Who knows, but it would be unsurprising.”

-- Read More...

U.S. stock futures point to weaker start - MarketWatch

2009-06-08T05:32:00.001-07:00

U.S. stock futures point to weaker start - MarketWatch

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U.S. chicken producers on the mend - MarketWatch

2009-06-06T05:24:00.001-07:00

U.S. chicken producers on the mend - MarketWatch

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No chemicals just tap water to clean - Activeion

2009-06-05T20:33:00.000-07:00

No chemicals just tap water - Bottle costs $300

The Activeion hand-held sprayer transforms tap water into a powerful cleaner that works as well as or better than other general-purpose, commercial chemical and "green" cleaning products. Using an advanced technology, the Activeion hand-held sprayer is a general-purpose, daily-use cleaner that can be used on both hard (i.e., marble/granite and stainless steel) and soft surfaces (i.e., carpet and clothing), freeing consumers and professionals from harmful chemicals and toxins. The versatility of the product allows the user to replace many of today's most common daily-use cleaners. More video

The science of Activeion

The science that now frees you from chemicals has been used for decades in the food processing, industrial technology, and health-related industries. We’ve just taken the technology and integrated it into a sprayer for the cleaning industry.

1. Charging
A water cell applies a slight electrical charge to the tap water.

2. Transforming
The charged water passes through an ion exchange membrane, creating an oxygen-rich mixture of positive and negative nano-bubbles.

3. Cleaning
The activated water now attracts dirt like a magnet and lifts it from the surface, enabling it to be easily wiped away.

Learn how Activeion technology truly is a revolution in cleaning.

Activeion license its technology ( ec-H2O™) from Tennant Company (NYSE:TNC)- a recognized leader in designing, manufacturing and marketing solutions that help create a cleaner, safer world.

Ran Lerner Design - Waste Free Packaging

2009-06-05T19:54:00.000-07:00

Ran Lerner Design

PSM (HK) Co Ltd

Plastarch Material ("PSM"), which is a revolutionary ecological material; is a combination of "plastic functional characteristics and starch biodegradable advantages"; and can be use for a large variety of manufacturing processes such as film blowing, injection molding, sheet extrusion, thermoforming and foaming. PSM has become part of the substitution products on plastic in which it has a very competitive price and excellent product performance in terms of durable and totally degradable under compost conditions and by incineration as well.

PSM is a polymer that is derived from the natural source of corn starch. Corn starch is a kind of polysaccharide polymer which consists of glucoses. It has two separate forms of linear and branched molecules, named as amylose and amylopectin respectively. During the modification process, corn starch is mixed with cellulose and enzymes in a large stirrer where condensation and polymerization happen to modify the starch properties. Enzyme addition and crosslink technique transforms the molecular structure of starch which has three distinguishable properties:

Change from hydrophile to hydrophobe
Change from heat sensitivity to high temperature resistance
Change from brittleness to plasticity

Using Moving Averages to Find Winning Stocks

2009-06-05T14:16:00.001-07:00

Using Moving Averages to Find Winning Stocks

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US Stock Rally Evaporates After Commodity Prices Turn Lower - MarketWatch

2009-06-05T07:49:00.001-07:00

US Stock Rally Evaporates After Commodity Prices Turn Lower - MarketWatch

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CFO - More Companies Tripping up on Loan Covenants

2009-06-05T07:26:00.000-07:00

A number of highly leveraged firms are now breaching the leverage ratios, fixed-charge coverage ratios, and net-worth minimums that were set in stronger, more-liquid markets. According to Standard & Poor's Leveraged Commentary & Data, there were 98 covenant amendments (publicly disclosed ones, that is) to high-yield corporate loan agreements in the first quarter of 2009, up from 62 in the previous quarter. Experts expect just as many, if not more, in the second quarter.

Other, less-leveraged companies will also be talking to their lenders about amending covenants. (According to one academic study, between a quarter and a third of all public companies will trip a loan covenant over a 10-year period.) And the conversations may not be pleasant. When credit was abundant, many banks felt they were taken advantage of, says Steven Bavaria, managing director of leveraged finance at credit-rating agency DBRS. "The gun was at their heads to reduce fees and spreads," he says. "Now some of the same borrowers have to go hat in hand and ask for covenant relief. They shouldn't expect a warm, helping hand from the bankers." Read more...

U.S. stock futures waver as recovery debated - MarketWatch

2009-06-04T06:03:00.001-07:00

U.S. stock futures waver as recovery debated - MarketWatch

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FHA Loans: Return to 0% Down

2009-06-03T15:39:00.001-07:00

A little-noticed Federal Housing Administration program will let first-time home buyers use their $8,000 tax credit for down payments or closing costs

The days of home buying with little or no money down may be back—this time thanks to Uncle Sam.

Blamed for contributing to the housing bubble, zero-down-payment loans largely vanished when the market crashed and Congress blocked seller financing for government-backed loans. Now the federal government will be forking over cash at closing. Read more

News and data that affected markets on 06/03

2009-06-03T13:10:00.001-07:00

Worse-than-expected data on factor orders (orders rose just 0.7 percent in April when analysts had called for a 0.9 percent increase) and services industry triggered a sell-off in stocks following 4 weeks of gain. There was also profit booking transaction that move the market.

Keep a close eye on any rise in Treasury yields and a sign of weakness in dollar

On Tuesday stocks extended a rally into a fourth day following an unexpectedly big spike in pending home sales, the latest sign that the battered housing market is starting to turn around.

U.S. stocks slipped early Wednesday as new jobs data beat expectations but neverthelesss showed a continued hemorrhage of jobs in the U.S. economy.

U.S. stock futures pause after Monday's rally - MarketWatch

2009-06-02T04:55:00.001-07:00

U.S. stock futures pause after Monday's rally - MarketWatch

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US Stocks Higher On Global Data Pointing To Recovery - MarketWatch

2009-06-01T07:47:00.001-07:00

US Stocks Higher On Global Data Pointing To Recovery - MarketWatch

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U.S. stock futures advanced

2009-06-01T06:43:00.001-07:00

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures advanced, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may extend gains from the first-three month winning stretch since its 2007 record, as growth in Chinese manufacturing boosted confidence the global economy is recovering.

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp. climbed with higher metals prices. Exxon Mobil Corp., the biggest U.S. oil company, and ConocoPhillips gained as crude rallied and China increased prices of gasoline and diesel by as much as 8 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in June added 1.6 percent to 932.5 at 9 a.m. in New York, even after General Motors Corp. filed for bankruptcy. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 1.3 percent to 8,598. Nasdaq-100 Index futures climbed 1.1 percent to 1,451.

“Investors are reacting to increased optimism surrounding economic numbers,” said Peter Jankovskis, who helps manage $1.2 billion at OakBrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois. “The surge in commodities prices is an indication that people see an economic recovery taking place.”

Who is Al Koch? - (GM to file for Chapter 11)

2009-05-31T21:42:00.000-07:00

Read on Bloomberg "GM to Name Al Koch to Top Restructuring Position, WSJ Reports"

Also on marketwatch "GM set to file Ch. 11 Monday morning"

Who is AL Koch?

Albert A. Koch, a turnaround specialist and managing director at the advisory company AlixPartners LLP, was a partner with Ernst & Young for 14 years, including seven years as Managing Partner of the firm's Detroit office. He holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from Elizabethtown College, and is a member of several professional associations. He is a Certified Turnaround Professional and a Fellow of the American College of Bankruptcy, its Treasurer and a member of its Board of Directors. He also is a member of the American Bankruptcy Institute, and the American Institute of CPAs.

Mr. Koch served as interim Chief Financial Officer of Kmart Corporation. In this position, he provided executive leadership and led the development of a multi-year operating business plan, as well as driving financial performance in conformity with the plan. His other assignments have included serving as interim CFO of Oxford Health Plans and leading the restructuring of Ryder System, Inc., which resulted in the building of significant shareholder value.

In 30th June 2002, Al Koch was appointed as interim President & CEO of Champion Enterprises Inc which was in the brink of bankruptcy. To prevent chapter 11 filing, he closed down the company's (manufactured) housing loan origination business, HomePride Finance Corp, four manufacturing facilities and 35 retail sales centers. After putting the company on the path to sustainable profitablity, he stepped down and a new CEO was appointed in 2004. But was the success of the turnaround due to the housing bubble that was brewing because of Greenspan's low interest rate. Currently the company's shares are trading at $0.44.

By appointed Al Koch, GM is again doing more of the same - appointing accountants and business graduates to the top position. They need to appointing someone with engineering experience with an understanding of business, reason being GM is firstly an engineering company and secondly a manufacturing company. This current appointment will send the wrong message to the rank and file.

Hybrid Assistive Limb 5 (HAL 5) From CYBERDYNE Inc

2009-05-30T22:49:00.000-07:00

"Robot Suit HAL" is a cyborg-type robot that can expand and improve physical capability.

Photo essay on Cyberdyne's Real Robot at Time.com

Super Size Me

2009-05-29T14:01:00.001-07:00

Market Gained over 1 Pct in the last 22 mins

2009-05-29T13:42:00.001-07:00

On 29 may 2009 market moved up towards the end of the market after a choppy day.

From Marketwatch.com

U.S. stocks post firm gains for the month of May

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks finished the week and the month of May on a high note, as rallying commodities led the market to higher ground on Friday and helped give the broad market a 5.3% gain for the month. After a late rally on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU 8,500, +96.69, +1.15%) gained 96 points, or 1.1%, to end at 8,500. Shares of General Motors Corp. (GM 0.78, +0.03, +4.00%) still slumped 33% as markets braced for the auto giant's bankruptcy. The S&P 500 index (SPX 919.14, +12.31, +1.36%) rose 12 points, or 1.4%, to 919, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP 1,774, +22.54, +1.29%) rose 22 points, or 1.3%, to 1,774. For the week, the Dow gained 2.7%, the S&P rose 3.6%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.9%. For the month, the Dow rose 4%, the S&P gained 5.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 3.3%.

US Stocks Slightly Higher In Choppy Trade; Materials Up - MarketWatch

2009-05-29T13:10:00.001-07:00

US Stocks Slightly Higher In Choppy Trade; Materials Up - MarketWatch

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Rethink your email, IM, Text Messaging - With Google Wave

2009-05-29T11:20:00.000-07:00

Came across an article on nextbigfuture.com about Google Wave, a new model for communication and collaboration on the web

New E Readers' - Kindle take note

2009-05-29T09:29:00.000-07:00

New E Reader Amazon Kindle alternative

Watch this report on Cool-er Reader by David Pogue.

Coolreaders specification click here

Alexander Wolfe in his blog did make a good point

The deal is, ebook competitors can come up with platforms which slice bread and take you out dancing. It won't matter. Amazon has become the iTunes of the electronic book world, and its competitors are destined to fates comparable to those of the iPod's mp3-player alternatives. Namely, miniscule market shares.

But this new product, which already is making buzz in the electronic world, is more about the technology than the content in its library. Plastic Logic has made a reader using plastic screen thereby reducing weight. Hopefully Amazon can incorporate it in the next version Kindle 3.0.

Here is what Technology Review wrote about this new product

Plastic Logic's Touch-Screen E-Reader
The company hopes to carve out a niche with its touch-based interface.
As with both the Kindle and the Sony Reader, Plastic Logic's display is built using E-ink: black and white microcapsules are suspended in a liquid and controlled using an electric charge. When a charge is applied, the microcapsules assume their position and form black text on a white background. However, in Plastic Logic's reader, the E-ink is deposited on a lightweight plastic backplane instead of on a glass backplane. Plastic Logic says that the plastic backplane allows for a larger reading area without adding more weight or bulk, and this makes the device more robust.
Plastic Logic hopes to further distinguish its reader from Amazon's Kindle and the Sony Reader by targeting those who read business documents created using Microsoft Office and Adobe Acrobat, as well as image files and standard e-reader files. The goal is to eliminate "the huge stack of papers that people take with them when they travel," says Glass. Many people need to sort through thousands of documents quickly, he adds, and want to mark them up by circling or underlining items or by adding notes.

Watch Video from MIT Tech Review website.

What's the next holy grail for e-reader "Color Display"

50 Best Websites 2008 - TIME

2009-05-29T09:14:00.001-07:00

GasBuddy - 50 Best Websites 2008 - TIME

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Sorting the Jewels from the Junk in the iTunes Store - Top 11 iPhone Applications - TIME

2009-05-29T09:08:00.001-07:00

Sorting the Jewels from the Junk in the iTunes Store - Top 11 iPhone Applications - TIME

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Stocks cling to gains after sentiment uptick - MarketWatch

2009-05-29T07:31:00.001-07:00

Stocks cling to gains after sentiment uptick - MarketWatch

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Microsoft Bing: The Full Press Release

2009-05-29T07:02:00.001-07:00

Microsoft Bing: The Full Press Release

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U.S. stocks pointing higher with data, GM in view - MarketWatch

2009-05-29T06:18:00.001-07:00

U.S. stocks pointing higher with data, GM in view - MarketWatch

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S&P Futures up 4.5 (0.5%), Nasday Futures up 4.25 points (0.3%) and Dow futures up 37 points (0.44%) on June 09 contracts. (9.08 AM)

John Dvorak's Second Opinion: The good news and bad news on Bing - MarketWatch

2009-05-28T20:14:00.001-07:00

John Dvorak's Second Opinion: The good news and bad news on Bing - MarketWatch

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Stocks regain pace after Treasury auction - MarketWatch

2009-05-28T11:55:00.001-07:00

Stocks regain pace after Treasury auction - MarketWatch

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PC Mag Bing Screen Print -- Who is Sascha Segan?

2009-05-28T09:44:00.000-07:00

Lazy to do another print screen. In slide show related to today's (05/28) PC magazine article " Hands On with Microsoft's Bing Search" you can see a Microsoft outlook notification at the bottom of the screen from Sascha Segan.

US Stocks Turn Lower On New Home Sales Data - MarketWatch

2009-05-28T08:12:00.001-07:00

US Stocks Turn Lower On New Home Sales Data - MarketWatch

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U.S. stocks turn negative after housing data - MarketWatch

2009-05-28T08:11:00.001-07:00

U.S. stocks turn negative after housing data - MarketWatch

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Futures up

2009-05-28T06:30:00.000-07:00

The S&P 500 Jun 08 is up 4.5 (0.50%) Nasdaq 100 Jun 09 up 6.5 points (0.46%) and Dow Jones Futures is up 47 points (0.57%) at9.28 AM (28 May 2009)

Futures edge higher after strong durable goods data

Auto sector remains in focus; Time Warner to spin off AOL unit

US Census Bureau

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $3.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $161.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second increase in the last three months and followed a 2.1 percent March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders also increased 1.0 percent.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, down nine consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $174.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.9 percent March decrease.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in April, down seven consecutive months, decreased $8.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $748.9 billion. This followed a 1.7 percent March decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in April, down four consecutive months, decreased $2.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $327.0 billion. This followed a 1.7 percent March decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in April decreased $1.0 billion or 2.0 percent to $49.5 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in April increased $2.0 billion or 23.2 percent to $10.8 billion.

FDIC - Report more banks in problem list

2009-05-27T09:33:00.000-07:00

Twenty-one FDIC-insured institutions failed during the first quarter, the largest number since the fourth quarter in 1992. The FDIC's "Problem List" grew during the quarter from 252 to 305 institutions, and total assets of problem institutions increased from $159 billion to $220 billion.

Not Generating enough cash/profits?

Three out of five insured institutions reported lower net income in the first quarter and one in five was unprofitable.

Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported net income of $7.6 billion in the first quarter of 2009, a decline of $11.7 billion (60.8 percent) from the $19.3 billion that the industry earned in the first quarter of 2008.

Read the full press release

list of failed banks since 2000

2009-05-27T09:30:00.000-07:00

This list includes banks which have failed since October 1, 2000.

Bank Name	CERT #	Closing Date	Updated Date
Citizens National Bank, Macomb, IL	5757	May 22 2009	May 27 2009
Strategic Capital Bank, Champaign, IL	35175	May 22 2009	May 27 2009
BankUnited, FSB, Coral Gables, FL	32247	May 21 2009	May 27, 2009
Westsound Bank, Bremerton, WA	34843	May 8, 2009	May 12, 2009
America West Bank, Layton, UT	35461	May 1, 2009	May 18, 2009
Citizens Community Bank, Ridgewood, NJ	57563	May 1, 2009	May 7, 2009
Silverton Bank, N.A., Atlanta, GA	26535	May 1, 2009	May 7, 2009
First Bank of Idaho, Ketchum, ID	34396	April 24, 2009	May 18, 2009
First Bank of Beverly Hills, Calabasas, CA	32069	April 24, 2009	May 18, 2009
Michigan Heritage Bank, Farmington Hills, MI	34369	April 24, 2009	May 7, 2009
American Southern Bank, Kennesaw, GA	57943	April 24, 2009	May 7, 2009
Great Basin Bank of Nevada, Elko, NV	33824	April 17, 2009	May 18, 2009
American Sterling Bank, Sugar Creek, MO	8266	April 17, 2009	May 7, 2009
New Frontier Bank, Greeley, CO	34881	April 10, 2009	May 7, 2009
Cape Fear Bank, Wilmington, NC	34639	April 10, 2009	May 7, 2009
Omni National Bank, Atlanta, GA	22238	March 27, 2009	May 7, 2009
TeamBank, National Association, Paola, KS	4754	March 20, 2009	May 7, 2009
Colorado National Bank, Colorado Springs, CO	18896	March 20, 2009	May 7, 2009
FirstCity Bank, Stockbridge, GA	18243	March 20, 2009	May 7, 2009
Freedom Bank of Georgia, Commerce, GA	57558	March 6, 2009	May 7, 2009
Security Savings Bank, Henderson, NV	34820	February 27, 2009	May 7, 2009
Heritage Community Bank, Glenwood, IL	20078	February 27, 2009	May 7, 2009
Silver Falls Bank, Silverton, OR	35399	February 20, 2009	May 7, 2009
Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, OR	57342	February 13, 2009	May 7, 2009
Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, IL	16500	February 13, 2009	May 7, 2009
Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, FL	34563	February 13, 2009	May 7, 2009
Sherman County Bank, Loup City, NE	5431	February 13, 2009	May 7, 2009
County Bank, Merced, CA	22574	February 6, 2009	May 7, 2009
Alliance Bank, Culver City, CA	23124	February 6, 2009	May 7, 2009
FirstBank Financial Services, McDonough, GA	57017	February 6, 2009	May 7, 2009
Ocala National Bank, Ocala, FL	26538	January 30, 2009	May 7, 2009
Suburban Federal Savings Bank, Crofton, MD	30763	January 30, 2009	May 7, 2009
MagnetBank, Salt Lake City, UT	58001	January 30, 2009	May 7, 2009
1st Centennial Bank, Redlands, CA	33025	January 23, 2009	May 1, 2009
Bank of Clark County, Vancouver, WA	34959	January 16, 2009	April 24, 2009
National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, IL	19733	January 16, 2009	April 24, 2009
Sanderson State Bank, Sanderson, TX En Español	11568	December 12, 2008	April 24, 2009
Haven Trust Bank, Duluth, GA	35379	December 12, 2008	April 24, 2009
First Georgia Community Bank, Jackson, GA	34301	December 5, 2008	April 24, 2009
PFF Bank and Trust, Pomona, CA	28344	November 21, 2008	April 24, 2009
Downey Savings and Loan, Newport Beach, CA	30968	November 21, 2008	April 24, 2009
The Community Bank, Loganville, GA	16490	November 21, 2008	April 24, 2009
Security Pacific Bank, Los Angeles, CA	23595	November 7, 2008	April 24, 2009
Franklin Bank, SSB, Houston, TX	26870	November 7, 2008	April 24, 2009
Freedom Bank, Bradenton, FL	57930	October 31, 2008	April 24, 2009
Alpha Bank & Trust, Alpharetta, GA	58241	October 24, 2008	April 28, 2009
Meridian Bank, Eldred, IL	13789	October 10, 2008	April 24, 2009
Main Street Bank, Northville, MI	57654	October 10, 2008	April 24, 2009
Washington Mutual Bank, Henderson, NV and Washington Mutual Bank FSB, Park City, UT	32633	September 25, 2008	April 24, 2009
Ameribank, Northfork, WV	6782	September 19, 2008	April 24, 2009
Silver State Bank, Henderson, NV En Español	34194	September 5, 2008	April 28, 2009
Integrity Bank, Alpharetta, GA	35469	August 29, 2008	April 24, 2009
The Columbian Bank and Trust, Topeka, KS	22728	August 22, 2008	April 24, 2009
First Priority Bank, Bradenton, FL	57523	August 1, 2008	April 24, 2009
First Heritage Bank, NA, Newport Beach, CA	57961	July 25, 2008	April 24, 2009
First National Bank of Nevada, Reno, NV	27011	July 25, 2008	April 24, 2009
IndyMac Bank, Pasadena, CA	29730	July 11, 2008	April 24, 2009
First Integrity Bank, NA, Staples, MN	12736	May 30, 2008	April 24, 2009
ANB Financial, NA, Bentonville, AR	33901	May 9, 2008	April 24, 2009
Hume Bank, Hume, MO	1971	March 7, 2008	April 24, 2009
Douglass National Bank, Kansas City, MO	24660	January 25, 2008	April 24, 2009
Miami Valley Bank, Lakeview, OH	16848	October 4, 2007	April 24, 2009
NetBank, Alpharetta, GA	32575	September 28, 2007	April 24, 2009
Metropolitan Savings Bank, Pittsburgh, PA	35353	February 2, 2007	April 24, 2009
Bank of Ephraim, Ephraim, UT	1249	June 25, 2004	April 9, 2008
Reliance Bank, White Plains, NY	26778	March 19, 2004	April 9, 2008
Guaranty National Bank of Tallahassee, Tallahassee, FL	26838	March 12, 2004	April 24, 2009
Dollar Savings Bank, Newark, NJ	31330	February 14, 2004	April 9, 2008
Pulaski Savings Bank, Philadelphia, PA	27203	November 14, 2003	July 22, 2005
The First National Bank of Blanchardville, Blanchardville, WI	11639	May 9, 2003	April 24, 2009
Southern Pacific Bank, Torrance, CA	27094	February 7, 2003	October 20, 2008
The Farmers Bank of Cheneyville, Cheneyville, LA	16445	December 17, 2002	October 20, 2004
The Bank of Alamo, Alamo, TN	9961	November 8, 2002	March 18, 2005
AmTrade International Bank of Georgia, Atlanta, GA En Español	33784	September 30, 2002	September 11, 2006
Universal Federal Savings Bank, Chicago, IL	29355	June 27, 2002	April 9, 2008
Connecticut Bank of Commerce, Stamford, CT	19183	June 26, 2002	April 24, 2009
New Century Bank, Shelby Township, MI	34979	March 28, 2002	March 18, 2005
Net 1st National Bank, Boca Raton, FL	26652	March 1, 2002	April 9, 2008
NextBank, N.A., Phoenix, AZ	22314	February 7, 2002	April 24, 2009
Oakwood Deposit Bank Company, Oakwood, OH	8966	February 1, 2002	April 24, 2009
Bank of Sierra Blanca, Sierra Blanca, TX	22002	January 18, 2002	November 6, 2003
Hamilton Bank, N.A., Miami, FL En Español	24382	January 11, 2002	April 24, 2009
Sinclair National Bank, Gravette, AR	34248	September 7, 2001	February 10, 2004
Superior Bank, FSB, Hinsdale, IL	32646	July 27, 2001	April 24, 2009
The Malta National Bank, Malta, OH	6629	May 3, 2001	November 18, 2002
First Alliance Bank & Trust Company, Manchester, NH	34264	February 2, 2001	February 18, 2003
National State Bank of Metropolis, Metropolis, IL	3815	December 14, 2000	March 17, 2005
Bank of Honolulu, Honolulu, HI	21029	October 13, 2000	March 17, 2005

Last Updated 05/27/2009

NAR Survey - Rises for existing homes - Most Sales in Lower end

2009-05-27T08:40:00.000-07:00

“Most of the sales are taking place in lower price ranges and activity is beginning to pick up in the midprice ranges, but high-end home sales remain sluggish,”

An NAR practitioner survey in April showed first-time buyers declined to 40 percent of transactions, implying more repeat buyers are entering the traditional spring home-buying season.

Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 8.8 percent to 3.97 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.2.-month supply³ at the current sales pace, compared with a 9.6-month supply in March. “The gain in inventory is largely seasonal from sellers entering the spring market. Even with the rise, inventory over the past few months has remained consistently lower in comparison with a year earlier ...read more original press release

Marketwatch report's - Home sales rise 2.9%, boosted by bottom fishing

Prices drop 15.4% while inventories continue to climb

For Data Junkies: 30yrs Fixed-Rate Mortgages since 1971

2009-05-27T08:29:00.000-07:00

Monthly Average Commitment Rate And Points On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971

	2009		2008		2007		2006		2005
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	5.05	0.7	5.76	0.4	6.22	0.4	6.15	0.5	5.71	0.7
February	5.13	0.7	5.92	0.5	6.29	0.4	6.25	0.6	5.63	0.7
March	5.00	0.7	5.97	0.5	6.16	0.4	6.32	0.6	5.93	0.7
April	4.81	0.7	5.92	0.4	6.18	0.5	6.51	0.6	5.86	0.6
May			6.04	0.5	6.26	0.4	6.60	0.5	5.72	0.6
June			6.32	0.7	6.66	0.4	6.68	0.5	5.58	0.6
July			6.43	0.6	6.70	0.4	6.76	0.5	5.70	0.5
August			6.48	0.7	6.57	0.4	6.52	0.4	5.82	0.5
September			6.04	0.7	6.38	0.5	6.40	0.5	5.77	0.6
October			6.20	0.6	6.38	0.5	6.36	0.4	6.07	0.5
November			6.09	0.7	6.21	0.4	6.24	0.5	6.33	0.6
December			5.29	0.7	6.10	0.5	6.14	0.4	6.27	0.5
Annual Average			6.03	0.6	6.34	0.4	6.41	0.5	5.87	0.6

	2004		2003		2002		2001		2000
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	5.71	0.7	5.92	0.6	7.00	0.8	7.03	0.9	8.21	1.0
February	5.64	0.7	5.84	0.6	6.89	0.7	7.05	1.0	8.33	1.0
March	5.45	0.7	5.75	0.6	7.01	0.7	6.95	0.9	8.24	1.0
April	5.83	0.7	5.81	0.6	6.99	0.7	7.08	0.9	8.15	1.0
May	6.27	0.7	5.48	0.6	6.81	0.7	7.15	1.0	8.52	1.0
June	6.29	0.6	5.23	0.6	6.65	0.6	7.16	1.0	8.29	0.9
July	6.06	0.6	5.63	0.5	6.49	0.6	7.13	0.9	8.15	0.9
August	5.87	0.7	6.26	0.7	6.29	0.6	6.95	0.9	8.03	1.0
September	5.75	0.7	6.15	0.6	6.09	0.6	6.82	0.9	7.91	1.0
October	5.72	0.7	5.95	0.6	6.11	0.6	6.62	0.9	7.80	1.0
November	5.73	0.6	5.93	0.6	6.07	0.6	6.66	0.8	7.75	0.9
December	5.75	0.6	5.88	0.7	6.05	0.6	7.07	0.8	7.38	1.0
Annual Average	5.84	0.7	5.83	0.6	6.54	0.6	6.97	0.9	8.05	1.0

	1999		1998		1997		1996		1995
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	6.79	0.9	6.99	1.4	7.82	1.8	7.03	1.8	9.15	1.8
February	6.81	1.0	7.04	1.2	7.65	1.7	7.08	1.7	8.83	1.9
March	7.04	0.9	7.13	1.2	7.90	1.8	7.62	1.8	8.46	1.8
April	6.92	1.0	7.14	1.0	8.14	1.7	7.93	1.8	8.32	1.9
May	7.15	1.0	7.14	1.1	7.94	1.7	8.07	1.7	7.96	1.8
June	7.55	1.0	7.00	1.0	7.69	1.7	8.32	1.7	7.57	1.8
July	7.63	1.0	6.95	1.1	7.50	1.8	8.25	1.8	7.61	1.8
August	7.94	1.0	6.92	1.1	7.48	1.7	8.00	1.7	7.86	1.8
September	7.82	1.0	6.72	1.0	7.43	1.7	8.23	1.7	7.64	1.8
October	7.85	1.0	6.71	0.9	7.29	1.7	7.92	1.7	7.48	1.9
November	7.74	1.0	6.87	0.9	7.21	1.7	7.62	1.8	7.38	1.8
December	7.91	1.0	6.74	1.0	7.10	1.8	7.60	1.7	7.20	1.8
Annual Average	7.44	1.0	6.94	1.1	7.6	1.7	7.81	1.7	7.93	1.8

	1994		1993		1992		1991		1990
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	7.07	1.7	7.99	1.6	8.43	1.8	9.64	2.1	9.90	2.1
February	7.15	1.8	7.68	1.5	8.76	1.8	9.37	2.0	10.20	2.1
March	7.68	1.7	7.50	1.6	8.94	1.9	9.50	2.1	10.27	2.1
April	8.32	1.8	7.46	1.7	8.85	1.7	9.50	2.0	10.37	2.1
May	8.60	1.8	7.47	1.8	8.67	1.7	9.47	2.0	10.48	2.0
June	8.40	1.8	7.42	1.6	8.51	1.7	9.62	2.1	10.16	2.0
July	8.61	1.8	7.21	1.6	8.13	1.6	9.58	2.0	10.04	2.0
August	8.51	1.8	7.11	1.5	7.98	1.7	9.24	1.9	10.10	2.0
September	8.64	1.8	6.91	1.5	7.92	1.7	9.01	1.9	10.18	2.1
October	8.93	1.8	6.83	1.5	8.09	1.8	8.86	1.9	10.17	2.2
November	9.17	1.8	7.16	1.6	8.31	1.9	8.71	1.8	10.01	2.1
December	9.20	1.8	7.17	1.7	8.21	1.6	8.50	1.8	9.67	1.9
Annual Average	8.38	1.8	7.31	1.6	8.39	1.7	9.25	2.0	10.13	2.1

	1989		1988		1987		1986		1985
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	10.73	2.1	10.38	2.0	9.20	2.2	10.89	2.3	13.08	2.5
February	10.65	2.2	9.89	2.1	9.08	2.1	10.71	2.3	12.92	2.4
March	11.03	2.2	9.93	2.0	9.04	2.1	10.08	2.3	13.17	2.6
April	11.05	2.2	10.20	2.1	9.83	2.3	9.94	2.2	13.20	2.6
May	10.77	2.1	10.46	2.1	10.60	2.3	10.15	2.3	12.91	2.5
June	10.20	2.1	10.46	2.0	10.54	2.2	10.69	2.3	12.22	2.5
July	9.88	2.1	10.43	2.0	10.28	2.2	10.51	2.2	12.03	2.5
August	9.99	2.1	10.60	2.2	10.33	2.1	10.20	2.1	12.19	2.6
September	10.13	2.0	10.48	2.1	10.89	2.2	10.01	2.2	12.19	2.6
October	9.95	2.0	10.30	1.9	11.26	2.2	9.98	2.1	12.14	2.5
November	9.77	2.0	10.27	2.1	10.65	2.1	9.70	2.0	11.78	2.4
December	9.74	2.0	10.61	2.1	10.64	2.1	9.32	2.1	11.26	2.3
Annual Average	10.32	2.1	10.34	2.1	10.21	2.2	10.19	2.2	12.43	2.5

	1984		1983		1982		1981		1980
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	13.37	2.3	13.25	2.2	17.48	2.2	14.90	2.0	12.88	1.6
February	13.23	2.4	13.04	2.0	17.60	2.2	15.13	2.0	13.04	1.6
March	13.39	2.4	12.80	2.2	17.16	2.2	15.40	2.0	15.28	2.0
April	13.65	2.4	12.78	2.1	16.89	2.3	15.58	2.0	16.32	1.9
May	13.94	2.5	12.63	2.1	16.68	2.3	16.40	2.1	14.26	1.9
June	14.42	2.5	12.87	2.1	16.70	2.2	16.70	2.1	12.71	1.8
July	14.67	2.6	13.43	2.2	16.82	2.2	16.83	2.1	12.19	1.8
August	14.47	2.6	13.81	2.2	16.27	2.3	17.28	2.1	12.56	1.7
September	14.35	2.6	13.73	2.2	15.43	2.3	18.16	2.1	13.20	1.7
October	14.13	2.6	13.54	2.1	14.61	2.2	18.45	2.3	13.79	1.7
November	13.64	2.5	13.44	2.1	13.82	2.2	17.82	2.1	14.21	1.7
December	13.18	2.5	13.42	2.2	13.62	2.2	16.95	2.1	14.79	1.7
Annual Average	13.88	2.5	13.24	2.1	16.04	2.2	16.63	2.1	13.74	1.8

	1979		1978		1977		1976		1975
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	10.39	1.5	9.01	1.3	8.72	1.1	9.02	1.1	9.43	1.2
February	10.41	1.5	9.14	1.3	8.67	1.1	8.81	1.0	9.10	1.2
March	10.43	1.5	9.20	1.3	8.69	1.2	8.76	1.3	8.89	1.1
April	10.50	1.5	9.35	1.3	8.75	1.1	8.73	1.3	8.82	1.0
May	10.69	1.6	9.57	1.3	8.83	1.1	8.76	1.3	8.91	1.1
June	11.04	1.6	9.71	1.4	8.86	1.1	8.85	1.3	8.89	1.0
July	11.09	1.7	9.74	1.4	8.94	1.1	8.93	1.2	8.89	1.1
August	11.09	1.7	9.78	1.3	8.94	1.1	9.00	1.2	8.94	1.1
September	11.30	1.6	9.76	1.3	8.90	1.1	8.98	1.2	9.12	1.1
October	11.64	1.7	9.86	1.2	8.92	1.2	8.92	1.2	9.22	1.1
November	12.83	1.7	10.11	1.2	8.92	1.1	8.81	1.3	9.15	1.1
December	12.90	1.6	10.35	1.4	8.96	1.2	8.79	1.2	9.10	1.1
Annual Average	11.20	1.6	9.64	1.3	8.85	1.1	8.87	1.2	9.05	1.1

	1974		1973		1972		1971
	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts	Rate	Pts
January	8.54	1.0	7.44	0.9	7.44	1.0	na	na
February	8.46	1.0	7.44	1.0	7.32	0.9	na	na
March	8.41	1.0	7.46	0.9	7.29	0.9	na	na
April	8.58	1.0	7.54	0.9	7.29	0.9	7.31	na
May	8.97	1.1	7.65	0.9	7.37	0.9	7.43	na
June	9.09	1.2	7.73	0.9	7.37	0.9	7.53	na
July	9.28	1.3	8.05	1.0	7.40	0.9	7.60	na
August	9.59	1.3	8.50	1.0	7.40	0.9	7.70	na
September	9.96	1.4	8.82	1.1	7.42	1.0	7.69	na
October	9.98	1.5	8.77	1.1	7.42	1.0	7.63	na
November	9.79	1.4	8.58	1.0	7.43	1.0	7.55	na
December	9.62	1.3	8.54	1.0	7.44	1.0	7.48	na
Annual Average	9.19	1.2	8.04	1.0	7.38	0.9	na	na

Get more data - Click here

May 27 Market moving report

2009-05-27T05:47:00.000-07:00

WSJ: A 10 a.m. report on existing-home sales is likely to be critical for the markets. Economists are looking for a slight rise in sales, which have hovered in a fairly tight range since November. On Tuesday, data showed that home prices are still falling sharply nationwide.

yahoo.com Sales of existing homes are expected to have risen at an annual rate of 4.66 million units, according to the median forecast of 66 economists polled by Reuters, as low interest rates, low home prices and government stimulus stir buying interest. The report is due at 10 a.m.

MarketWatch: Mortgage applications fell 14.2% last week: MBA

Mortgage applications filed last week fell a seasonally-adjusted 14.2% last week, compared with the week before, as rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ticked up, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, released on Wednesday.

Applications were up 28.5% for the week ended May 22, compared with the same week in 2008. The MBA survey covers about one-half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.

Bloomberg - U.S. stock-index futures fell after Monsanto Co. forecast earnings that disappointed investors and bank borrowing costs rose for a second day.

Monsanto, the largest maker of seeds, tumbled 4.3 percent after saying 2009 earnings will be at the low point of its previous forecast. KeyCorp and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. slid at least 1 percent as the cost of borrowing in dollars between banks climbed amid concern some financial firms are still struggling with the credit crisis.

Stock Future Points to lower opening

2009-05-27T05:36:00.000-07:00

Mixed reports on future in the media, marketwatch reports a higher opening based on early morning trend. WSJ reports a mixed opening "About an hour before the start of regular trading in New York, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower by about eight points."

The S&P 500 Jun 08 is down 1.4 (0.15%) Nasdaq 100 Jun 09 fell 3 points (0.21%) and Dow Jones Futures is down 9 points (0.11%) at 8.29 AM (27 May 2009)

Looking forward to housing data ... really - MarketWatch

2009-05-26T13:34:00.001-07:00

Looking forward to housing data ... really - MarketWatch

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US Stocks Surge On Consumer Confidence Report - MarketWatch

2009-05-26T10:13:00.001-07:00

US Stocks Surge On Consumer Confidence Report - MarketWatch

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Current Solution to financial crisis - CNN money slide show
10 countries, 10 solutions
A financial crisis has engulfed countries from the best-off to the worst-off around the world. The solutions to the problem are varied.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™

2009-05-26T09:40:00.000-07:00

The employment outlook was also less pessimistic. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 20.0 percent from 14.2 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased to 25.2 percent from 32.5 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes edged up to 10.2 percent from 8.3 percent.

Source: May 2009 Consumer Confidence Survey, The Conference Board

Get a quote from Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg definition of Cusomer Confidence Index -

This index is an average of responses to the following questions: 1. Respondents appraisal of current business conditions. 2. Respondents expectations regarding business conditions six months hence. 3. Respondents appraisal of the current employment conditions. 4. Respondents expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence. 5. Respondents expectations regarding their total family income six months hence. For each of the 5 questions, there are three response options: Postive, Negative and Neutral. The response proportions to each question are seasonally adjusted. For each of the five question (above), the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the 'RELATIVE' value. For each question, the average RELATIVE for the calendar year 1985 is then used as a benchmark to yield the INDEX value for that question. From 1967 to mid 1977 the CCI was bi-monthly.

U.S. stocks point lower for May 26 - But market surged

2009-05-26T07:53:00.000-07:00

Marketwatch.com

Futures fell a bit more after a report showing home prices fell 2.2% in March. U.S. home prices fell a record 19.1% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 2.2% in March and were down 18.7% in the past year.

S&P futures fell by 5.3 point to 879 and Nasdaq futures fell 8.2 points to 1,352, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 42 points to 8,218.
(MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell a record 19.1% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday.
On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 2.2% in March and were down 18.7% in the past year.

Consumers' confidence surges on brig hter job view

A reading on U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 54.9 in May from an upwardly revised 40.8 in April as expectations for jobs improved, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The gain is the fourth-largest in the 32-year history of the survey, and the index is at its highest level in eight months. Economists were expecting the index to hit 43.

"Expectations are that business conditions, the labor market and incomes will improve in the coming months," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "While confidence is still weak by historical standards, as far as consumers are concerned, the worst is now behind us."

There was also a confidence surge in April.

For May, consumers' expectations rose to 72.3 from 51 as those expecting business conditions to improve rose to 23.1% from 15.7%, and those expecting more jobs rose to 20% from 14.2%. Consumers' appraisal of the present situation rose to 28.9 from 25.5, though many still view business conditions as "bad."

An improved economy is almost a "default" occurrence, given how tough times have been, wrote Dan Greenhaus with the equity strategy group at Miller Tabak, in a research note.

Comment on MBA's persona non grata status

2009-05-22T07:53:00.000-07:00

Businessweek had this article MBAs: Public Enemy No. 1? After flipping through the slides (MBAs gone bad) you see a common theme (not the degree) and you wonder if the original title was "Harvard Business School - Public enemey number uno?", but got edited in the final draft.

There is a lot of discussion going on in the business schools (bschools) about the way management is being taught and if they are to be blamed for the current financial crisis. Is the bschool to be blamed in the first place?

Sure the short-term minded MBA’s may have caused the crisis. But there is another cause related to short-term-ism and that is the failure of managers (not just managers with MBAs) to recognize the risks associated with innovative new products (CDO’s, Credit Default Swaps, etc) and general lack of experience in nurturing innovation.

Managers bought into the idea that they could wait for innovative new products to grow in someone else’s backyard and move to acquire it at the right time (Wachovia purchase of Golden West's World Savings Bank, Merrill Lynch exposure to sub-prime). This strategy reduces the cost of development and reduces the risk of failure. Managers decides the right time to acquire by following there stock options spread which in theory is as good as listening to the customers or taking a long-term view, given the fact that markets are always forward looking.

Timing based on market, as we realize now, can often be guided by a shortsighted market chasing high returns only acheived in a market bubble (God forbidding we should remember the bust). In that case you sure will get your timing and risk assessment wrong.

A non-market measure will require a subjective decision which will be based on past experience in innovation management, deep knowledge of the product and the available skill set within your organization, usually such wealth of knowledge is trapped in human capital of your organization

Managing and nurturing innovation requires a long-term view and a wiliness to keep experienced and skilled human capital (people) within your organization. In the long run it will help create timely new products and services while retaining the capital for future growth. If a manager’s greatest asset is managing quarterly expectation then the manager shouldn’t be in the CEO’s office, a press secretary’s post will match her skill set.

CEO/manager who acquired the “in thing” and don’t seem to know how to make it work, will have to fight the permeating argument “look it’s working for someone” and will do the next best thing they learned (in bschool) transfer fixed cost to variable cost. Right sizing the organization to make it work, usually to meet quarterly forecast, though a good method if you know what to right size. Managers are rewarded to “make it work”, and they do exactly that “make it work” in the short-term or what I call the “duct tape managers”. Long term view is always in the sideline (waiting for Steve Jobs or someone like that to show up) and wrong decision too big to fail are made to work at the expense of the stakeholders.

This leads to the next issue what is truly driving leader’s (CEO) decision? Bschool training and/or markets.

Here are some reference website

Henry Mintzberg website

Are Business Schools to Blame?

How to fix business school (HBS)

Talent Pool Drying Up Just When Wall St. Needs It

Business Schools Mull Over Blame In Financial Crisis

Productivity2008 (pdf) by Mintzberg

Moody's comfortable with AAA sovereing rating on US

2009-05-22T06:21:00.000-07:00

Reuters reports Moody's Investors Service said Thursday it is comfortable with the triple-A sovereign rating on the United States, but it is not guaranteed forever.

S&P 500 Jun09 futures up 4.7 points (0.53%) to 893.40 and Nasdaq 100 Jun 09 futures up 6.25 points to 1,373.74. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 42 (0.51%) points to 8337.

Marketwatch report "bears may take advantage of what could be light volumes to close out negative bets"

Japan indexes head lower as exporters weaken - MarketWatch

2009-05-21T20:25:00.001-07:00

Japan indexes head lower as exporters weaken - MarketWatch

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Sears swings to surprise profit; shares jump - MarketWatch

2009-05-21T16:19:00.001-07:00

Sears swings to surprise profit; shares jump - MarketWatch

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Gap advances; Autodesk surges - MarketWatch

2009-05-21T16:18:00.001-07:00

Gap advances; Autodesk surges - MarketWatch

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SheevaPlug - Tiny Plug in computer

2009-05-21T12:24:00.000-07:00

Plug Computing @ Yahoo! Video

Articles:

Masses to Marvell at tiny wall plug computer? (cnet)
Plugging In $40 Computers (nytimes)
website plug computer

Greenspan - Banks need more capital

2009-05-21T12:11:00.000-07:00

NYtimes - Dealbook qouting bloomberg article
Greenspan - "There is still large unfunded captical requirement in the commerical banking system in the US, and that's got to be funded .."

Bloomberg article - Greenspan Says Banks Still Have a ‘Large’ Capital Requirement

Tech Stocks: Tech stocks slide, led by H-P, Dell, chips - MarketWatch

2009-05-21T12:00:00.001-07:00

Tech Stocks: Tech stocks slide, led by H-P, Dell, chips - MarketWatch

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Investors look to Gap, Salesforce.com results - MarketWatch

2009-05-21T11:59:00.001-07:00

Investors look to Gap, Salesforce.com results - MarketWatch

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Basic Borrowing Costs (TED) - down

2009-05-21T09:22:00.000-07:00

MarketWatch.com "Another fear gauge returns to normal"
TED spread (wiki it) slides to summer 2007 levels

The TED spread (quote from bloomberg), one of the most popular barometers for the credit crunch among money managers, has fallen to July 2007 levels, a sign that one of the underlying triggers for the bear market has dissipated.

The gap between the 3-month Treasury bill rate and 3-month Libor fell to 48 basis points Thursday, down from more than 450 basis points at the peak of credit panic in October and near its long-term average of about 50 basis points. One basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point. read more...

Associated Press reports "Economic indicators up more than expected in April"

CBO - The State of the Economy report

2009-05-21T09:18:00.001-07:00

CNN Report: Even if the economy returns to positive growth this year, the loss in output, income and employment during the recession and the next few years will be huge," said Doug Elmendorf, director of the CBO, in testimony before the House Budget Committee."CBO's forecast in August is likely to show even larger shortfalls in output over the next few years," he said. The agency is expecting that the unemployment rate will continue to rise into the second half of next year and will peak above 10%. In March, CBO forecast unemployment would hit 9.5%. Read more...

Read the complete COB Report

Fear Index - CBOE Volatility Index up 4.93 pct

2009-05-21T08:02:00.000-07:00

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) moves up as Tim Geithner appears before house panel. Fear mounts on Fed borrowing and UK's possible downgrade by S&P. Lack of good news, people back to watching markets after the end of American Idol and Dancing with the Stars, may be, we can try out Britain's got Talent, with TV remote control providing click dollars to Treasury.

update at 2:40pm - Index up 10.68 pct ^VIX 32.13

Phil Fed Business Outlook Survey - Good News - NEF (Future employment)

2009-05-21T07:27:00.000-07:00

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadadelphia, Business Outlook Survey had some good news hidden in them.

Future Employment outlook moved up 22 points to 10 from -12 last month. It was in the negative territory for the last 7 months. Future New Orders (NOF) increased to 46.7 which is above the average number since May 1968.The last time the number crossed current average was in Sep 08 (36.2).
For Data Junkies: Historical Data
Variable names and definitions for data in the following files:
bos_dif.txt, bos_dif.csv, and bos_dif.xls.

GAC     Current Activity Index                                                                                                                                                                 
NOC     Current New Orders                                                                                                                                                                     
SHC     Current Shipments                                                                                                                                                              
UOC     Current Unfilled Orders                                                                                                                                                
DTC     Current Delivery Time                                                                                                                                                  
IVC     Current Inventories                                                                                                                                                                    
PPC     Current Prices Paid                                                                                                                                                    
PRC     Current Prices Received                                                                                                                                                
NEC     Current Employment                                                                                                                                                                     
AWC     Current Average Workweek                                                                                                                                                                       
GAF     Future Activity Index                                                                                                                                                                  
NOF     Future New Orders                                                                                                                                                                      
SHF     Future Shipments                                                                                                                                                               
UOF     Future Unfilled Orders                                                                                                                                                 
DTF     Future Delivery Time                                                                                                                                                   
IVF     Future Inventories                                                                                                                                                                     
PPF     Future Prices Paid                                                                                                                                                     
PRF     Future Prices Received                                                                                                                                                 
NEF     Future Employment                                                                                                                                                              
AWF     Future Average Workweek                                                                                                                                                
CEF     Future Capital Expenditures 

All of the data are diffusion indexes.

Phili Fed - May survey - survey show GAC at -22.6 vs -24.4 in April

2009-05-21T07:11:00.000-07:00

Summary (source Philadelphia Fed)

According to respondents to the May survey, activity in the region's manufacturing sector continued to decline this month. But evidence that declines are moderating was again present. While the broad indicators remained negative, most have improved from April. Responses to special questions offered corroboration that declines have been moderating for a significant proportion of firms. Most broad indicators for future business conditions improved markedly again this month, suggesting that an increasing number of the region's manufacturing executives expect a recovery in business activity before the end of the year.

Special Questions (May 2009)

1. Over the past two months, how would you characterize the underlying demand for your manufactured products?*
Increasing significantly	2.4%
Increasing modestly	22.0%
No change	19.5%
Decreasing modestly	31.7%
Decreasing significantly	24.4%

2. If you are currently experiencing declines in demand, how would you characterize the declines?
Declines have moderated.	31.8%
Declines have continued at a steady pace.	15.3%
Declines have been more severe.	16.6%
NR	36.5%

3. When do you expect to see an increase in demand at your company?*
One month	2.4%
2-3 months	14.1%
4-5 months	20.0%
6 months or more	44.7%
NR	18.8%

Has the recession bottomed out? - No clear data

2009-05-21T06:43:00.000-07:00

Read this article from Reuters

"four-week average of new jobless claims, a closely watched gauge of underlying labor trends because it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell to 628,500 from 632,000 the week before. The four-week average has now dropped in five out of the last six weeks.
"I am pleased that we've got the four-week average in jobless claims beginning to move down again," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

"But I still think we need a more convincing decline to signal from the jobless claims perspective that the recession has bottomed out," Ryding said. read on...

May 21 - US Indexes Down at opening

2009-05-21T06:20:00.002-07:00

Markets open down - Dow fell 127.04 points (1.51%), NASDAQ fell 19.87 points (1.15%) and S&P 500 fell 12.26 (1.36%)

Update after 2hrs of trading "Wall St tumbles as jobs, Fed data curb optimism" read more...(reuters)

Futures Down before opening bell May 21

2009-05-21T06:20:00.001-07:00

(Market Watch) Standard & Poor's affirmed the U.K.'s credit rating at AAA but lowered its outlook to negative from stable, citing the potential that government debt may equal the country's output. The worse a country's credit rating, the more expensive it is to borrow.
S&P 500 futures down 10.2 points (1.13%) to 829.70 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 13.75 points to 1,378.75. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 85 points to 8310.

Are we in the eye of the mortgage storm?

2009-05-20T21:21:00.000-07:00

Whitney Tilson,hedge fund T2 Partners who predicted the credit crisis late last year, spoke in detail on 60 minutes and again on CNBC.com's article More Mortgage Meltdown.
Here are some interesting statistic from Whitney when asked the following on 60 min - "How big is the potential damage from the Alt As compared to what we just saw in the sub-primes?" Pelley asks. "Well, the sub-prime is, was approaching $1 trillion, the Alt-A is about $1 trillion. And then you have option ARMs on top of that. That's probably another $500 billion to $600 billion on top of that," Tilson says. Asked how many of these option ARMs he imagines are going to fail, Tilson says, "Well north of 50 percent. My gut would be 70 percent of these option ARMs will default."
"How do you know that?" Pelley asks.
"Well we know it based on current default rates. And this is before the reset. So people are defaulting even on the little three percent teaser interest-only rates they're being asked to pay today," Tilson says.

And on May 20th Reuters reported that Hedge fund T2 Partners LLC is selling financial stocks that have soared since March, expecting the fallout from the mortgage crisis will produce more losses for banks. read on

Check this blog out if you want to track hedge funds

Fed: May 09 - reduces 2009 outlook

2009-05-20T16:39:00.000-07:00

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bank stocks led the market lower after the Federal Reserve cut its economic forecast and said unemployment could get worse.

The Fed's prediction Wednesday that the jobless rate could approach 9.6 percent -- worse than its previous forecast of 8.8 percent -- was especially ominous for banks since that data is a component of the government's recent "stress tests" designed to determine how healthy banks are.

The Fed also now expects the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, to post a drop of between 1.3% and 2% this year. It had previously expected only a 0.5% to 1.3% decline. Read more

Economic projections of Federal Reserve Governors

2009-05-20T16:28:00.000-07:00

Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, April 2009
Percent
Variable	Central tendency¹				Range²
Variable	2009	2010	2011	Longer run	2009	2010	2011	Longer run
Change in real GDP	-2.0 to -1.3	2.0 to 3.0	3.5 to 4.8	2.5 to 2.7	-2.5 to -0.5	1.5 to 4.0	2.3 to 5.0	2.4 to 3.0
January projection	-1.3 to -0.5	2.5 to 3.3	3.8 to 5.0	2.5 to 2.7	-2.5 to 0.2	1.5 to 4.5	2.3 to 5.5	2.4 to 3.0
Unemployment rate	9.2 to 9.6	9.0 to 9.5	7.7 to 8.5	4.8 to 5.0	9.1 to 10.0	8.0 to 9.6	6.5 to 9.0	4.5 to 5.3
January projection	8.5 to 8.8	8.0 to 8.3	6.7 to 7.5	4.8 to 5.0	8.0 to 9.2	7.0 to 9.2	5.5 to 8.0	4.5 to 5.5
PCE inflation	0.6 to 0.9	1.0 to 1.6	1.0 to 1.9	1.7 to 2.0	-0.5 to 1.2	0.7 to 2.0	0.5 to 2.5	1.5 to 2.0
January projection	0.3 to 1.0	1.0 to 1.5	0.9 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.0	-0.5 to 1.5	0.7 to 1.8	0.2 to 2.1	1.5 to 2.0
Core PCE inflation³	1.0 to 1.5	0.7 to 1.3	0.8 to 1.6		0.7 to 1.6	0.5 to 2.0	0.2 to 2.5
January projection	0.9 to 1.1	0.8 to 1.5	0.7 to 1.5		0.6 to 1.5	0.4 to 1.7	0.0 to 1.8

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The January projections were made in conjunction with the FOMC meeting on January 27-28, 2009.

1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to table

2. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. Return to table

3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. Return to table

CDO explained - all you need to know Dilbert

2009-05-20T15:44:00.000-07:00

Dilbert - Internet and productivity

2009-05-20T15:37:00.000-07:00

Steve Leuthold turn bull - one less bear in the market

2009-05-20T09:40:00.000-07:00

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Steve Leuthold, who turned bullish this year after profiting from the equity market rout in 2008, said he may invest almost 70 percent of some funds in stocks as the economy stabilizes.

He’s betting that large investment firms, which have cut equity holdings, will put more of their assets in U.S. stocks in an effort to avoid underperforming the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as the market continues to rally. Leuthold, who spoke in a Bloomberg Television interview, also said he’s buying gold, silver and Asian stocks on speculation the dollar will weaken.

Leuthold’s Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year as the S&P 500 posted the steepest annual retreat since 1937. He turned bullish in March, five days before the index sank to the lowest level in 12 years, telling Bloomberg TV that “every investor ought to be considering putting money into equities.” The measure has surged 30 percent since then, approaching his prediction of 1,100.

“When I said 1,100, people thought I was smoking something,” Leuthold, 71, said today. “Now it seems like a much more rational thing, and we are seeing many, many, many people that have said, ‘Hey, I’m going to wait until next year when the economy is improving,’ that are now saying, ‘Uh oh, I think we maybe better move before that.’”

On April 14, Leuthold said in an interview that the S&P 500 would surge to 1,100. The index closed at 908.13 yesterday, after sinking as low as 676.53 in March.

While the Grizzly Short Fund gained as the S&P 500 dropped in 2008, the Leuthold Core Investment Fund lost 27 percent. Still, that was less than the 38 percent retreat by the benchmark index for U.S. stocks.

Marketwatch.com - Market timer bullish about US stocks

2009-05-20T08:41:00.000-07:00

Read the article at Seven bullish timers by Mark Hulbert

Here's a list of these seven, in alphabetical order, along with a brief summary of their current stock-market forecast: (each of them beat a buy-and-hold in each of the last two bear markets, as well as in the intervening bull market)

*

The Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's valuation model, based on a comparison of the earnings yield of the stock market and the yield on corporate bonds, shows stocks currently to be in the "Very Undervalued" category -- far more undervalued, in fact, than it has been at any point in the last three decades. His model portfolio is close to being fully invested in stocks.
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Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early May, editor Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe the final bottom for the cyclical bear market was registered with the series of benchmark closing lows that occurred in early March on reduced trading volume. Since that time, we have been in the early stages of a cyclical bull market which should carry into next year and generate large percentage gains for the major indexes." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.
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Eric Kobren's Fidelity Insight: Moderately bullish. In his most recent issue, received two weeks ago, Kobren wrote: "The overall picture of a market in the midst of a bottoming process, if perhaps not yet at the actual bottom, remains intact." In his latest email to subscribers, he added that he remains "cautious" for the "near term." The average recommended domestic equity exposure in his equity-oriented model portfolios is 78%.
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Fidelity Independent Adviser: Bullish. In an email this past weekend to subscribers, editor Donald Dion wrote: "If investors remain optimistic, they will not derail this rally until the underlying economy deteriorates -- and that may not happen. Stimulus spending and Federal Reserve intervention may be enough to stabilize the economy, albeit with the risk of greater inflation. Furthermore, a drop of nearly 200 points on the S&P 500 Index /quotes/comstock/10u!spx.x (SPX 919.23, +11.10, +1.22%) would still leave the market above its previous lows and would only constitute a correction of the rally, not a reversal." Dion's equity oriented model portfolios are fully invested.
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Fidelity Sector Investor: Bullish. Editor Jim Lowell wrote this past weekend: "I remain both hopeful and cautious that the bottoming process is well underway." But, he added, he also expects the market to undergo a 10% to 15% correction of the rally that began on March 9. Lowell's several equity-oriented model portfolios are fully invested.
*

Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors: Moderately Bullish. Editor Dan Wiener wrote in his early-May issue: "I'm considering getting a bit more bullish in the months ahead, but for now, hang tight." The average recommended domestic equity exposure among his equity-oriented model portfolios is 73%.
*

Investor's Guide to Closed-End Funds. Bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld notes that "Closed-end fund discount levels ... remain historically wide at a -8.2% average for all funds," which is bullish. His model portfolio that focuses on the U.S. equity market is 88% invested.

The bottom line? Each of these top timers is at least moderately bullish. Their average recommended domestic equity exposure is 91%