Tuesday, May 19, 2009

100 banks will fail by the end of this year

Matthew Anderson studies the health of banks at Foresight Analytics. He says just over 3 percent of commercial mortgages were delinquent in the first three months of the year, and it's getting worse. As delinquencies rise, Anderson predicts at least another 100 banks will fail by the end of this year. Small banks are especially vulnerable. (Read more)

Read More about FED action - More Liquidity to kickstart Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities under TALF

Commercial real estate woes will take a toll.
Cracks in these loans are just appearing as leases are allowed to lapse when tenants go belly-up or seek cheaper digs to survive the recession. Commercial mortgages account for 23% of assets on average for banks valued at less than $100 billion versus 7% for bigger institutions, according to Foresight.

And higher Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation (FDIC) assessments will sting, taking a bite out of banks' precious capital cushions. "Last year, we paid $8,000 for FDIC insurance," says Terry Jorde, CEO of CountryBank USA in North Dakota. "This year, we could pay up to $150,000, and that takes away from our ability to lend."

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