Read the article at Seven bullish timers by Mark Hulbert
Here's a list of these seven, in alphabetical order, along with a brief summary of their current stock-market forecast: (each of them beat a buy-and-hold in each of the last two bear markets, as well as in the intervening bull market)
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The Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's valuation model, based on a comparison of the earnings yield of the stock market and the yield on corporate bonds, shows stocks currently to be in the "Very Undervalued" category -- far more undervalued, in fact, than it has been at any point in the last three decades. His model portfolio is close to being fully invested in stocks.
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Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early May, editor Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe the final bottom for the cyclical bear market was registered with the series of benchmark closing lows that occurred in early March on reduced trading volume. Since that time, we have been in the early stages of a cyclical bull market which should carry into next year and generate large percentage gains for the major indexes." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.
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Eric Kobren's Fidelity Insight: Moderately bullish. In his most recent issue, received two weeks ago, Kobren wrote: "The overall picture of a market in the midst of a bottoming process, if perhaps not yet at the actual bottom, remains intact." In his latest email to subscribers, he added that he remains "cautious" for the "near term." The average recommended domestic equity exposure in his equity-oriented model portfolios is 78%.
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Fidelity Independent Adviser: Bullish. In an email this past weekend to subscribers, editor Donald Dion wrote: "If investors remain optimistic, they will not derail this rally until the underlying economy deteriorates -- and that may not happen. Stimulus spending and Federal Reserve intervention may be enough to stabilize the economy, albeit with the risk of greater inflation. Furthermore, a drop of nearly 200 points on the S&P 500 Index /quotes/comstock/10u!spx.x (SPX 919.23, +11.10, +1.22%) would still leave the market above its previous lows and would only constitute a correction of the rally, not a reversal." Dion's equity oriented model portfolios are fully invested.
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Fidelity Sector Investor: Bullish. Editor Jim Lowell wrote this past weekend: "I remain both hopeful and cautious that the bottoming process is well underway." But, he added, he also expects the market to undergo a 10% to 15% correction of the rally that began on March 9. Lowell's several equity-oriented model portfolios are fully invested.
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Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors: Moderately Bullish. Editor Dan Wiener wrote in his early-May issue: "I'm considering getting a bit more bullish in the months ahead, but for now, hang tight." The average recommended domestic equity exposure among his equity-oriented model portfolios is 73%.
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Investor's Guide to Closed-End Funds. Bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld notes that "Closed-end fund discount levels ... remain historically wide at a -8.2% average for all funds," which is bullish. His model portfolio that focuses on the U.S. equity market is 88% invested.
The bottom line? Each of these top timers is at least moderately bullish. Their average recommended domestic equity exposure is 91%
Here's a list of these seven, in alphabetical order, along with a brief summary of their current stock-market forecast: (each of them beat a buy-and-hold in each of the last two bear markets, as well as in the intervening bull market)
*
The Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's valuation model, based on a comparison of the earnings yield of the stock market and the yield on corporate bonds, shows stocks currently to be in the "Very Undervalued" category -- far more undervalued, in fact, than it has been at any point in the last three decades. His model portfolio is close to being fully invested in stocks.
*
Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early May, editor Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe the final bottom for the cyclical bear market was registered with the series of benchmark closing lows that occurred in early March on reduced trading volume. Since that time, we have been in the early stages of a cyclical bull market which should carry into next year and generate large percentage gains for the major indexes." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.
*
Eric Kobren's Fidelity Insight: Moderately bullish. In his most recent issue, received two weeks ago, Kobren wrote: "The overall picture of a market in the midst of a bottoming process, if perhaps not yet at the actual bottom, remains intact." In his latest email to subscribers, he added that he remains "cautious" for the "near term." The average recommended domestic equity exposure in his equity-oriented model portfolios is 78%.
*
Fidelity Independent Adviser: Bullish. In an email this past weekend to subscribers, editor Donald Dion wrote: "If investors remain optimistic, they will not derail this rally until the underlying economy deteriorates -- and that may not happen. Stimulus spending and Federal Reserve intervention may be enough to stabilize the economy, albeit with the risk of greater inflation. Furthermore, a drop of nearly 200 points on the S&P 500 Index /quotes/comstock/10u!spx.x (SPX 919.23, +11.10, +1.22%) would still leave the market above its previous lows and would only constitute a correction of the rally, not a reversal." Dion's equity oriented model portfolios are fully invested.
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Fidelity Sector Investor: Bullish. Editor Jim Lowell wrote this past weekend: "I remain both hopeful and cautious that the bottoming process is well underway." But, he added, he also expects the market to undergo a 10% to 15% correction of the rally that began on March 9. Lowell's several equity-oriented model portfolios are fully invested.
*
Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors: Moderately Bullish. Editor Dan Wiener wrote in his early-May issue: "I'm considering getting a bit more bullish in the months ahead, but for now, hang tight." The average recommended domestic equity exposure among his equity-oriented model portfolios is 73%.
*
Investor's Guide to Closed-End Funds. Bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld notes that "Closed-end fund discount levels ... remain historically wide at a -8.2% average for all funds," which is bullish. His model portfolio that focuses on the U.S. equity market is 88% invested.
The bottom line? Each of these top timers is at least moderately bullish. Their average recommended domestic equity exposure is 91%
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